A Third of Uzbekistan’s GDP Comes from the Informal and Shadow Economy

Photo: uz.kursiv.media

In January–June of this year, Uzbekistan’s unobserved economy—which includes the activities of individuals and households concealing their income—reached 265.5 trillion soums ($21.2 billion), or 32.9 percent of the country’s total gross domestic product. The data was published by the press service of the National Statistics Committee.

According to the agency, the unobserved economy is calculated using two criteria: the activity of households and entrepreneurs operating without legally required registration (the informal economy), and the performance of businesses concealing information from authorities to evade taxes (the shadow economy).

In the reporting period, the share of the informal economy stood at about 201.3 trillion soums ($16 billion), while the shadow economy accounted for 64.2 trillion soums ($5.1 billion).

The most problematic sector is agriculture, forestry, and water management, where more than 75 percent of companies and entrepreneurs are “in the shadows” or operating outside the law. Next come construction and services, with rates of 35.9 percent and 35.2 percent, respectively.

Overall, in the first half of 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP nearly reached 808 trillion soums ($64.5 billion), 7.2 percent higher than in the same period last year.

The positive trend was largely driven by growth in the gross value added of key economic sectors. The leading contributors were “other services” (excluding hotels, logistics, trade, and IT), industry, and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.

Per capita GDP for the reporting period was 21.4 million soums ($1,700), up 5.2 percent from January–June 2024.

For all of last year, the unobserved economy totaled 505 trillion soums ($40.3 billion), or 34.8 percent of GDP. The informal economy accounted for more than 383 trillion soums ($30.5 billion), and the shadow economy for 122 trillion soums ($9.8 billion).

According to Spot.uz, in 2024 the General Prosecutor’s Office brought nearly 16 trillion soums ($1.2 billion) “out of the shadows” and into the state treasury. In addition, over 15,000 jobs were legalized, and the operations of 9,000 entrepreneurs were formalized.

At the end of that year, the country’s Tax Committee announced that by 2030 the volume of the shadow economy is to be halved. In line with this plan, Uzbekistan’s 2025 budget is expected to gain an additional 20 trillion soums ($1.6 billion).