Central Asia, a Region at the Center of It All

From left: Ursula von der Leyen, António Costa, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Sadyr Japarov. Photo courtesy of the Press Service of the President of Uzbekistan

On April 3–4, the city of Samarkand hosted the first-ever Central Asia–European Union summit. Among the key participants were the presidents of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The significance of this meeting appears to reach well beyond the borders of Central Asia—and perhaps even beyond Europe itself.

Multipolar Clashes

On the eve of the summit’s opening, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who chaired the event, called it a truly historic occasion. That wording, perhaps, deserves to be unpacked.

It is clear why the summit is so important for Central Asia, which is now becoming a strategic partner of the EU and gaining opportunities and prospects previously unheard of. It is also clear why the summit is significant from the European Union’s perspective, for whom, only a few years ago, Central Asia seemed like a distant backwater—especially in comparison with such giants as the United States, China, and Russia. But the importance of the summit goes beyond its participants. In an unexpected way, it promises to become a global event—and here is why.

In recent years, the global situation has changed dramatically, or, to put it in layman’s terms, turned completely upside down. Russia’s first president, Boris Yeltsin, once spoke with great enthusiasm about the future of a multipolar world: Russia is one pole, America is another, Europe is a pole, China another, and so on. Today, the world has indeed become multipolar—but the poles have ended up bitterly at odds with one another.

The United States is in conflict with China and with much of the world; Russia is allied with China against the rest of the world; and the European Union, for various reasons often beyond its control, has ended up at odds with Russia, the U.S., and China alike.

A separate blow to the established world order came from the policies of the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump. On April 2, Trump imposed new tariffs, effectively launching a trade war against the entire world. (Incidentally, Kazakhstan was caught in the crossfire: under the new American rules, its goods will be subject to a 27 percent tariff.)

Still, tariffs are not the worst thing Trump is capable of. Things have reached the point where psychiatrists are competing with each other to diagnose him. One way or another, no one wants to be at the mercy of his whims—least of all Europe, which sees Trump’s current policies as a betrayal of shared civilizational values and the ideals of the free world. Naturally, Europe is not writing off the United States, which remains the world’s leading power under any circumstances: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly stressed that the EU is open to dialogue with Washington. However, simply sitting still and waiting to see what bright idea Trump might come up with next is a thankless and frankly dangerous strategy. As the saying goes, when you’re drowning, it’s up to you to save yourself.

Against this backdrop, the Samarkand summit appears as an extremely timely response to the radical shifts in global politics. In this sense, the summit’s motto—“Investing in the Future”—could be reinterpreted to read “Investing in the Present.” Everything is changing so rapidly that a response to today’s developments may come not in a year or even a month, but in the coming days.

When a world order once seen as unshakable begins to collapse, it becomes necessary to quickly find new points of support. This is where the concept comes into play that crisis opens a window for new opportunities.

In seeking out such opportunities, it becomes clear that the world does not revolve solely around major players like the United States, China, or Russia. It turns out that the European Union can also achieve excellent results by turning its attention to regions that, until recently, it had not taken particularly seriously. Central Asia has emerged as one such region, and it may serve as an example of a somewhat unexpected but effective partnership model for other actors on the international stage.

Forgotten Politics?

Speaking at the opening of the Samarkand summit, President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev outlined the priorities for further cooperation between Central Asia and the EU. He mentioned investments:

👉 in strengthening political dialogue, and the legal and institutional framework for multilateral cooperation;

👉 in economic and technological modernization;

👉 in the field of so-called critical mineral resources;

👉 in “green” energy and environmental sustainability.

Ursula von der Leyen. Photo courtesy of the press service of the President of Uzbekistan

In her speech at the summit, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen named four priority areas: the Trans-Caspian transport corridor, critical raw materials, green energy, and digital connectivity. In reality, of course, the scope of cooperation is much broader and more diverse, but listing everything is not feasible.

It is noteworthy that the political dimension—always of critical importance to the European Union—was not mentioned in von der Leyen’s brief remarks, even though Mirziyoyev listed it first.

Does this mean that the European Union is excluding the political and human rights component from its upcoming strategic partnership with Central Asia, focusing only on economic, technological, and humanitarian cooperation? Of course not.

In the third point of the joint declaration following the summit—after affirmations of strategic partnership and commitment to the goals of the EU Strategy for Central Asia—there is mention of respect for the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all states within their internationally recognized borders, the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace in Ukraine as soon as possible, a commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force, and the necessity of peaceful conflict resolution. In light of today’s global agenda, where war is becoming commonplace, such statements no longer read as abstract declarations about good versus evil—they become an action plan.

Further on, the declaration mentions the fight against terrorism, state sovereignty, and territorial integrity (a clear nod to Trump, who keeps trying to annex Canada and Greenland), as well as the need to address the situation in Afghanistan.

The seventh point of the declaration is also political in nature and does not bode well for Russia. It states that cooperation in preventing sanctions evasion remains an important aspect of Central Asia–EU relations. This means that Europeans still hope sanctions can halt the “special military operation”—as long as Russia cannot circumvent them. But now, evading sanctions will become even more difficult—Central Asian countries are no longer willing partners in that regard. At least, that’s what the declaration says.

Getting Off the Needle

Returning to the economy, there are some interesting nuances here as well. Take the topic of mineral resources, for example. It comes with certain contradictions. Yes, Central Asia is rich in minerals—for instance, just on the eve of the summit, a large rare-earth metal deposit was discovered in Kazakhstan. But Kazakhstan isn’t the only country with such resources. Ursula von der Leyen herself stated at the summit that the region holds 40 percent of the world’s manganese reserves, along with lithium, graphite, and many other materials. However, as the President of the European Commission emphasized, unlike those who see Central Asia merely as a raw materials base for extraction (read: China and Russia), Europe is proposing a fundamentally different approach: to establish a full production cycle right in the region.

Photo courtesy of the Press Service of the President of Uzbekistan

Throughout the summit, it was repeatedly emphasized that the European Union is a reliable and forward-looking partner, one that invests in the sustainable development of Central Asia for mutual and long-term benefit. The foundation of future relations will be consistency, predictability, and ambition. All in all, it can be said that the European Union is offering not just mutually beneficial, but equal partnerships.

Indeed, when it comes to how countries like the United States and China relate to the region, there is a certain air of neo-colonialism—a top-down gaze, as if looking at natives. What J.D. Vance criticizes the European Union for—namely, the uncontrolled influx of “wild” migrants—actually casts Europe in a more favorable light in this case. The EU clearly does not divide people by race, nationality, or culture. Despite all the challenges that immigration brings to the European Union, the EU still upholds humanist values and moral principles of equality and fraternity. Neither the shape of one’s eyes nor the color of one’s skin, nor any other formal trait serves as a reason to consider some people superior to others, or one culture better than another. And finally, for the countries of the European Union—unlike, say, Donald Trump—reputation still carries great weight. Taken together, all of this provides some assurance that the EU will not deceive its new partners, to whom it has offered strategic cooperation.

In addition to traditional natural resources, the summit also addressed another kind of resource. The region’s diverse natural landscapes provide vast potential for renewable energy. Wind, solar radiation, and water resources all form the basis for exploring “green” topics from a variety of perspectives.

The goal here is not at all to pander to radical environmentalists like Greta Thunberg. Aside from the natural desire to live in a clean world, there is also a purely pragmatic interest—Europe has long wanted to break free from the grip of oil and gas. This is one of the reasons behind the decarbonization program, which was discussed separately at the summit. The EU does not want to depend on major hydrocarbon suppliers—whether it’s Russia, the United States, or Saudi Arabia. Such dependence is, first of all, financially unpleasant, and second, in the new, cynical world, it opens the door to basic blackmail. Hence, the focus on decarbonization and the transition to renewable energy sources.

It’s clear that the European Union will not be able to fully transition to ecologically clean energy sources just yet, but at least it can diversify its hydrocarbon supply and source part of it from Central Asia, with which it is likely to be easier to negotiate even on terms.

In the near future, multibillion-dollar investments will flow into Central Asia to implement a whole range of joint EU programs, such as Global Gateway, for which Ursula von der Leyen has already announced a €12 billion investment package. Energy projects, digital, environmental, and the development of the extraction and processing industries—all this will require a large number of workers. This is likely to lead to a redistribution of labor migration and the return of people from abroad to the republics of the region.

Of course, large financial investments always present a great temptation for various local officials, with their habit of «cutting» budgets without lifting their behinds from their chairs. However, one hopes that the leadership of the Central Asian republics will find energetic, educated managers who have attended Western schools and universities and who will be able to push things forward.

Is America Taking a Step Back?

Today, from the example of the Samarkand summit, we see not just the birth of a new strategic partnership, which is promising for both Central Asia and Europe, but also a shift in the familiar political paradigm. Not long ago, political and economic alliances looked like this: the US — the European Union, Russia — Central Asia, and so on. However, things have changed. While the United States is gradually, though clearly, moving closer to Russia, Europe is entering into the closest partnership with Central Asia. It is clear that Central Asia does not enter this new alliance from an anti-Russian position, but its degree of independence and autonomy undoubtedly increases.

In the contemporary world, the economy is never just about economy; it has become much more of a political issue than before. For example, not so long ago, the European Union had some criticisms regarding human rights, such as those directed at Turkmenistan. However, now, when, to put it archaically, rockets are flying into Europe's soft underbelly, shells are falling, bombs are exploding, and old partners are simply betraying, the focus shifts to things that are vitally important. This means that Europe is now willing to turn a blind eye to some of the problems of the past and put them on the back burner.

However, it is worth clarifying that the EU and the Central Asian countries are not forming military-political alliances — these are economic alliances, and, partly, as strange as it may seem, ideological ones. This may seem surprising, but currently, the ideology of the European Union in various areas is closer to the Central Asian republics than to the United States or Russia. This is an extremely inspiring example for other countries and regions, which, following the example of the EU and Central Asia, can look for new allies in the face of changing circumstances, rather than wallowing in depression over the catastrophic changes happening around them.

As is well known, changing circumstances require unconventional solutions. And therefore, it is the new, unexpected alliances that are capable of establishing new points of balance in a world that has tilted under the pressure of unfavorable transformations.

A confirmation that the «EU-Central Asia» summit has the potential to change not only the future but also the present unexpectedly came from the American side. The summit had barely concluded when the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency curator, Elon Musk, proposed the creation of a free trade zone between the U.S. and Europe, where zero tariffs would apply. Commentators were divided: some saw it as a change in Washington's position, while others saw it as Musk's rebellion against Trump's policies. However, this seems more like an attempt to gauge the mood of the European Union's political elites and, based on that, to build a further strategy.

Of course, it cannot be asserted that Musk's conciliatory proposal was a direct result of the summit's outcomes, but America's reaction may have been influenced by the decisiveness with which the EU pursued the establishment of new promising alliances. The very idea that it might be possible to get by without the U.S. clearly proved intolerable for Trump and his allies.

One way or another, thanks to the new strategic partnership, Europe finds itself in a stronger position for negotiations with anyone. Central Asia now gains not only economy-developing projects and a vast market for raw materials but also the opportunity to process this raw material all the way to finished products, which places it on par with developed regions. The broadest range of new opportunities in the economy also expands the political potential of the Central Asian republics, enabling them to step onto the level of global players — at least, as part of a regional union, a strategic partner of the European Union.